Early bowl projections for 2008-2009

The following is a (very) early projection of what the 2008-2009 college bowl lineup will look like assuming all the current bowl games and conference tie-ins remain the same. Things can and will change by the time summer rolls around, so please take these predictions with a grain of salt.

Poinsettia Bowl: Navy vs. TCU

New Orleans Bowl: Florida Atlantic vs. UTEP

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Rutgers vs. Central Florida

New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico vs. Louisiana Tech

Las Vegas Bowl: Air Force vs. Arizona State

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa

Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Indiana

Holiday Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Cal

Champ Sports Bowl: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Emerald Bowl: UCLA vs. North Carolina

Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Houston

Meineke Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida State

Liberty Bowl: East Carolina vs. South Carolina

Alamo Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska

Independence Bowl: Kansas State vs. Mississippi

Armed Forces Bowl: Oregon State vs. Utah

Sun Bowl: Washington vs. Pittsburgh

Humanitarian Bowl: Boise State vs. Maryland

Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Boston College vs. Alabama

Insight Bowl: Colorado vs. Iowa

Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs. Auburn

Cotton Bowl: Texas vs. Tennessee

Capital One Bowl: LSU vs. Penn State

Gator Bowl: Kansas vs. Virginia

Rose Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia vs. Florida

Fiesta Bowl: Missouri vs. Illinois

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Brigham Young

International Bowl: South Florida vs. Bowling Green

GMAC Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Southern Miss

BCS National Championship: Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Emerald Bowl

Dec. 28, 2007

8:30 EST, San Francisco, Cal., ESPN

Prediction: Oregon vs. Boston College

Pac-10 no. 5 vs. ACC no. 7

Analysis:

The original Bowl Projection opinion was that Boston College wouldn't even make it to a bowl game this year. Boy were we wrong. And I'm not sure why we were so negative on B.C. They handled last year's ACC champion in Wake Forest in week one. And Matt Ryan looks good at quarterback. Jeff Jagodzinski is doing a nice job so far. Do you think that Tom O'Brien is second guessing his move to NC State?

Oregon handled Houston in the season opener. Week two will be an even better barometer or how well the season will go for the Ducks. Will Michigan bounce back after getting beat by Appalachian State? Or can Oregon hand the Wolverines the second straight home loss to open the season. One would think that if Appalachian State can do it, so could Oregon.

Independence Bowl

Dec. 30, 2007

8 p.m. EST, Shreveport, La., ESPN

Predicition: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee

SEC no. 8 vs. Big XII no. 7

Analysis:

Tennessee lost to a good Cal team, and there's no loss of respect in that. But the fact is that any one loss puts you further and further down the bowl pecking order. Unless Tennessee rules the roost in SEC East play, it will be tough for them to get to a better bowl. Teams like Kentucky are going to be better than anyone thinks. The loss of the Vols' receiving talent from a year ago has really hurt Erik Ainge.

Oklahoma State also lost their season opener. It just also happened to be against an SEC team in Georgia. The Cowboys look to have better luck in Big XII play. It might have been a different story had they been able to get Georgia at home too. Bobby Reid figures to have better days in Stillwater.

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Dec. 29, 2007

1 p.m. EST, Charlotte, N.C., ESPN

Prediction: South Florida vs. Maryland

Big East vs. ACC no. 6

Analysis:

Neither of our bowl participants did much of note during the first week of the season. They both beat Championship subdivision opponents, which is more than Michigan can say, though. South Florida beat Elon handily. Quarterback Matt Groethe and the defense will lead the way for more prominent wins as the season continues. Maryland, meanwhile, beat Villanova in another yawner. A win is a win and Ralph Friedgen will need every one to get the Terrapins bowling in the postseason.

Armed Forces Bowl

Dec. 31, 2007

12:30 p.m. EST, Fort Worth, Tex., ESPN

Prediction: BYU vs. Arizona State

Moutain West vs. Pac-10

Analysis:

Arizona State had an impressive win over San Jose State in their season opener. The Spartans have not traditionally been a powerhouse by any means, but they did win a bowl game last year. And the fact that the Sun Devils dismantled them bodes well for the season.

BYU's win over Arizona will earn them another shot at a Pac10 team in the postseason. The Cougars had to replace a lot of talent from a season ago including quarterback John Beck, but they looked more than capable in their season opening win.

Texas Bowl

Dec. 28, 2007

8 p.m. EST, Houston, Tex., NFL Network

Prediction: Houston vs. Kansas

Conference USA vs. Big XII

Analysis:

Kansas had a really nice win over a decent Central Michigan team on Saturday. The may have only been a MAC opponent, but the Chippewas are a team that won a bowl game a year ago and have both a nice quarterback and running back. Cornerback Aqib Talib is the team's MVP and player to watch.

Houston may have lost their season opener, but they played a tough Oregon team on the road. The loss was expected. As long as they can stay atop the Conference USA standings, they should remain bowl eligible.

PapaJohns.com Bowl

Dec. 22, 2007

1 p.m., Birmingham, Ala., ESPN2

Prediction: Cincinnati vs. Tulsa

Big East vs. Conference USA

Analysis:

The battle is going to come down to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the berth in this game, and based upon week one's play, Cincinnati it is. So far so good in Brian Kelly's first year in running the Bearcats. The balance on offense was good to see. They seems to be able to run and pass equally well.

For Tulsa, even though it wasn't against the strongest of opponents, a win on the road is always a good thing. Paul Smith showed why he is deserving of first team All-Conference USA. If Tulsa misses Steve Kragthorpe, they haven't shown it yet.

Motor City Bowl

Dec. 26, 2007

7:30 p.m., Detroit, Mich., ESPN

Prediction: Indiana vs. Kent State

Big 10 no. 7 vs. MAC

Analysis:

We're sticking with Indiana in the Motor City slot. Iowa will provide stiff competition, but we just think the stars are aligned for the Hoosiers. Iowa didn't exactly sparkle against Northern Illinois. And Indiana will be playing all season long for the memory of Terry Hoeppner.

Kent State showed their meddle by winning a road game in a Big XII stadium. Iowa State might not exactly be a quality opponent, but Bret Meyer and Todd Blythe are quality players. The Golden Flashes will go to their first bowl game for the first time since 1972, which will be sweet for them seeing as they should have gone to one last year.

International Bowl

Jan. 5, 2008

12 p.m. EST, Toronto, Canada, ESPN 2

Prediction: Notre Dame vs. Toledo

Big East/Notre Dame vs. MAC

Analysis:

If Saturday's performance is any indication, Notre Dame will be lucky to finish with a .500 record this season. And if they do, they better hope no team from the Big East finishes with a winning record. Bowl rules dictate that teams with a winning record are given preference. A team like Pittsburgh could leapfrog the Fighting Irish here.

Central Michigan was the original pick for this game, but they didn't show any fight versus Kansas. Toledo didn't exactly excel against Purdue either, but they showed more than the Chippewas. The Rockets are hoping the Toledo of old starts showing through and it should.

New Orleans Bowl

Dec. 21, 2007

8 p.m. EST, New Orleans, La., ESPN 2

Prediction: Troy vs. UCF

Sun Belt no. 1 vs. Conference USA

Analysis:

With their win over BCS conference foe North Carolina State on Saturday, UCF is rewarded with an elevation in the bowl pecking order. They get to face the Sun Belt champion in the Crescent City. On a side note, is this what Tom O'Brien signed up for at NC State?

Troy might have lost their season opener at Arkansas, but they played admirably. Omar Haugabrook should be able orchestrate Troy to a conference championship. A key game will be against Florida Atlantic in the last game of the regular season. Atlantic showed their might with a win over a 2006 bowl eligible team in Middle Tennessee State in their season opener.

Poinsettia Bowl

Dec. 20, 2007

9 p.m. EST, San Diego, Calif., ESPN

Prediction: Navy vs. Utah

Navy/at large vs. Mountain West

Analysis:

With BYU's win against a Pac10 team and Utah's loss against a Pac10 team, BYU leapfrogs Utah to compete in the Armed Forces Bowl against another Pac10 opponent. Utah still gets a bowl game, but they'll have to face Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Navy's handling of Temple shows they should finish with a winning record this season. Should they have lost, a winning season might have been in question. Adam Ballard won't let this team down.

Hawaii Bowl

Dec. 23, 2007

8 p.m. EST, Honolulu, Hawaii, ESPN

Prediction: Fresno State vs. SMU

WAC vs. Conference USA

Analysis:

Going to back to Hawaii once is nice. Fresno State won't exactly want to travel to the Islands twice in the same season, but they won't have a choice. If the Bulldogs and New Mexico State both end their seasons with winning records, the New Mexico Bowl will tab the Aggies as their team. The Bulldogs are bound for Hawaii.

SMU gets back to their first bowl game since 1984 and will be happy to go to Hawaii, or anywhere for that matter.

New Mexico Bowl

Dec. 22, 2007

4:30 p.m. EST, Albuquerque, N.M., ESPN

Prediction: New Mexico State vs. Wyoming

Mountain West vs. WAC

Analysis:

As long as New Mexico State finishes with a winning record, they figure to get the bid to the New Mexico Bowl from the WAC in what will amount to somewhat of a home game. With Chase Holbrook running the show as long as the Aggies show any bit of defense, they should have a winning season.

If New Mexico can't beat UTEP, they don't figure to be much of a factor in the Mountain West race. On the other hand, Wyoming really showed their teeth on Saturday in a win over a BCS conference in Virginia. Karsten Sween could be the best quarterback in the Mountain West.

PapaJohns.com Bowl

Dec. 22, 2007

Prediction: Pittsburgh vs. SMU

Big East vs. Conference USA

Analysis:

The fallout from the Gator Bowl continues with Pittsburgh entering into the bowl equation. The Panthers weren't in our original projections, but are now in due to the unusual on again/off again arrangement between the Big East and Big XII with the Gator Bowl. And while that may be good news for Pittsburgh, it also means Colorado has dropped out of bowl projections completely. Sorry Buffs fans.

Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt holds onto his job by guiding Pitt to a bowl game for the first time in his three years as coach. And things are looking up. After getting to a lower tier bowl in 2007, an even better bowl may come in 2008. The Pat Bostick to Oderick Turner connection should only get better as time goes on. Not to be overlooked, Pitt has one of the best special teams units in the conference if not the nation.

Texas Bowl

Dec. 28, 2007

Prediction: Houston vs. Oklahoma State

Conference USA vs. Big XII

Analysis:

Our fallout from the Gator Bowl continues with Oklahoma State dropping from the Indepedence Bowl to the Texas Bowl. And the worst news of all, sorry Colorado fans, some team had to drop out totally and the Buffs are now not predicted to go bowling. We still predict Colorado to be bowl eligible, but the number of bowls affiliated with the Big XII just isn't enough to accomodate the Buffs.

Oklahoma State would probably rather play an SEC opponent in the Indepedence Bowl, but playing Houston in its home town could be just as tough. The Cowboys' top player is wide receiver Adarius Bowman and he'll look to take advantage of the Cougar secondary. Houston might be one of the top teams in Conference USA, but playing an Oklahoma State team that deserves to play in a better bowl could be a bit much.

Independence Bowl

Dec. 30, 2007

Prediction: Auburn vs. Texas Tech

SEC no. 8 vs. Big XII no. 7

Analysis:

The fallout of the Gator Bowl snafu continues with Texas Tech being demoted from the Sun Bowl in favor of a Big East team to the Independence Bowl instead. Our prediction of Auburn stays the same, this time playing the Red Raiders instead of the original projection of Oklahoma State. The prediction here is that Texas Tech will have a better record than Oklahoma State and the Cowboys will likewise be demoted.

Texas Tech gets bumped from the slightly more historic Sun Bowl, but they still get a good opponent in Auburn, an SEC powerhouse. The Auburn defense will definitely have to prepare for the Tech passing onslaught. With a year of seasoning under his belt, Graham Harrell should improve in his second year in the system.

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Dec. 29, 2007

Prediction: Rutgers vs. Miami

Big East vs. ACC no. 6

Analysis:

The fallout from the Gator Bowl continues as we alter our predictions. Due to our elevation of South Florida to the Sun Bowl, a good Rutgers team also jumps up to the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Miami will remain the opponent from the ACC.

Although the South Florida vs. Miami matchup had certain geographical implications, the new opponent for Miami is even better. Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano had been rumored to be the new head coach for Miami before Schiano decided to stick with the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is coming off two consecutive bowl appearances, the best in team history. And his teams are becoming more competitive. Ray Rice will look to do some damage against the Hurricanes, who themselves are looking forward to a better season with less off the field issues than in 2006.

Sun Bowl

Dec. 31, 2007

Prediction: Oregon vs. South Florida

Pac-10 no. 3 vs. Big XII/Big East/Notre Dame

Analysis:

A closer look at the bowl affiliation has the Gator Bowl selecting a Big XII team only twice in a two year period. According to Big XII official website, "In the two years in which the Gator does not select a Big 12 team, the Sun Bowl will."

We believe only one Big XII team will make it to a BCS game this season. In turn, we still think there will still be several very good Big XII teams that are bowl eligible, and the Gator Bowl will elect to nab a very good Oklahoma team for its New Year's Day slot. Therefore, we have to amend our earlier prediction that the Sun Bowl would pit Oregon and Texas Tech.

Oregon will still be the Pac-10 representative, but the Sun Bowl will have to go with a Big East team instead. Our prediction is South Florida, which is not a bad alternative. South Florida will have a punishing defense while sophomore quarterback Matt Groethe looks to have a better year in 2007.

Stay tuned as the Gator Bowl fallout will affect our predictions in about five other bowls.

GMAC Bowl

Jan. 6, 2008

Prediction: Central Florida vs. Ohio

Conference USA no. 2 vs. MAC

Analysis:

The only team better than UCF in Conference USA might be Southern Mississippi. After a bowless year in 2006, UCF will be bowl eligible once again if they don't manage to make it to the conference title game. The strength of the team lies in the tandem of cornerbacks, Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal. Opposing offenses will want to stick the the run game with those cornerbacks roaming the secondary.

Frank Solich has Ohio exactly where he wants them, near the top of the MAC standings. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to become bowl eligible for a second year in a row with only 11 returning starters from last year's team. One of those 11 just so happens to be one of the best running backs in the conference in Kalvin McRae. Behind McRae, Ohio can do special things despite an inexperienced squad.

New Mexico Bowl

Dec. 22, 2007

Prediction: New Mexico vs. New Mexico State

Mountain West vs. WAC

Analysis:

The dream matchup for the New Mexico Bowl committe will become a reality in what will result in a packed stadium. Just like 2006, if the Lobos are bowl eligible, they will be selected for the game. It will be tough just to become eligible once again, though, like last year when New Mexico barely made it with a .500 record. A very veteran squad returns in Albuquerque, which certainly makes things easier for coach Rocky Long. Running back Rodney Ferguson will be one of the main reason the Lobos return for their second consecutive New Mexico Bowl.

New Mexico State finally gets back to a bowl game for the first time since 1960, and the college football landscape will take notice of coach Hal Mumme's pass happy offense. If it wasn't for Hawaii's Colt Brennan getting a lot of attention from WAC observers, quarterback Chase Holbrook would be a lot more well known. Last year's stats speak for themselves, 4619 yards passing, 70% completion percentage, 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Holbrook should be able to match those numbers in 2007 as he returns his top seven pass receivers from a year ago. Of course, the key to winning will lie with the defense and whether they will be able to prevent opposing offenses from outscoring their own.